MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Wednesday, May 1st
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our Fantasy Pick’em tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Wednesday, May 1st
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto MORE Than 15.5 Outs and 26.5 Fantasy Points
- Kutter Crawford LESS Than 17.5 Outs
- Jose Butto LESS Than 16.5 Outs
- Matt Chapman MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Evan Carter MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto MORE Than 15.5 Outs
Yoshinobu Yamamoto MORE Than 26.5 Fantasy Points
The Diamondbacks are good, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto is straight ballin’. He has a 2.66 SIERA, 11.89 K/9, and only 1.93 BB/9 with 0.96 HR/9 allowed through 107 batters faced. His PrizePicks projection is weighted down for the matchup, but we’re gonna bet on the talent here after two straight games with 6.0 IP, throwing 97 and 99 pitches. He gave up four earned runs on April 19 to the Mets and still threw 99 pitches in six innings. This is the definition of a long leash, so 15.5 outs is way too low, and therefore 26.5 fantasy points is as well. His MORE than 15.5 outs is the second-best play on the board according to our pick ‘em tool, and his MORE than 26.5 fantasy points is the fifth best. We have him projected for 16.5 outs and 31.5 fantasy points, so these are smashes.
Kutter Crawford LESS Than 17.5 Outs
Kutter Crawford isn’t a bad pitcher, but he isn’t this good either. First off, he’s hit 5.2 IP or more in three straight starts, and two of those were at Fenway, including his last start when he was left in despite allowing four earned runs to the Cubs. But he’s a fly ball pitcher without great strikeout stuff against a Giants projected lineup with six guys featuring fly ball rates of 29% or higher against righties, five barrel rates of 9% or higher, and a collective hard-hit rate of 50.5%. He can get straight-up smashed here. The range of outcomes is very wide, but we have Crawford projected for 15.6 outs. At 16.0 or even 16.5, maybe we stay away, but 17.5 is too high to ignore, so we should pound the LESS button here on our pick ‘em tool’s best play on the board.
Jose Butto LESS Than 16.5 Outs
It’s pronounced “boo-TOH,” not “butt-OH.” Sorry to spoil your fun. But while we’re on the topic of fun, the Cubs should have some fun with Jose Butto tonight. Their implied run total is only 3.9, but Butto can’t find the strike zone, and that should get him a quick hook. He doesn’t give up much power, and Citi Field is a great place for depressing power, but his 4.92 BB/9 is among the worst in baseball. He’s going 90-95 pitches into the fifth inning pretty consistently, but the meter runs on his pitch count like Uber’s surge pricing on a Friday night. The Cubs’ 9.3% BB rate should get this count near his max before the fifth inning, as we have Butto projected for only 15.1 outs. His range of outcomes is wide, but 16.5 isn’t the middle. His ceiling is in the range of only 18, and his floor has to be lower than 15 if his projection is 15.1. We’re probably talking about a floor around 12. Our pick ‘em tool has Butto LESS Than 16.5 outs as the fourth-best play on the board.
Matt Chapman MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Matt Chapman is a low-contact guy, but he hits the ball really hard. His 61.4% hard-hit, 29.8% fly-ball, and 14.6% barrel rates play extremely well against Crawford’s fly ball profile in Fenway Park. Even if he doesn’t launch over the Monster, he’s a great shot to pound the Monster hard. I like him to get over the Monster tonight, so 1.5 total bases is a projection to exploit. We have him projected for 1.8 total bases — 20% more than his DEMON projection.
Evan Carter MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
An even better projection to exploit is Evan Carter to go MORE than 1.5 total bases. We have him projected for 2.2 against Trevor Williams, who is reverse splitsy but still allows a .209 ISO with only a 13.1% K rate to lefties. Carter has a 29% line drive rate and a 9.7% barrel rate against righties. And — oh, by the way — Carter has 99th percentile sprint speed, so there’s always the chance of him legging a single into a double. There are so many ways for Carter to beat the PrizePicks projection with one swing against a vulnerable pitcher.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
There are a lot of decent pitchers in rough spots tonight, so we can go LESS than on a few outs and fantasy point totals. The hitter projections are pretty efficient, so we should be even more pitcher-heavy than we normally are. I normally play about 80-85% pitching projections; today might be more like 95%.
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