MLB Player Props Today: Three Predictions for Dinger Tuesday (4/30)
What kind of performances can we expect on Dinger Tuesday from Austin Wells, Joey Loperfido, and Joc Pederson? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for today – Tuesday, April 30, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Dinger Tuesday! The popular FanDuel promotion is back for Week 5 of the 2024 MLB season – bet $25 (amount varies) on a pre-live, straight “To Hit a Home Run” wager and receive bonus bets for each home run hit by both teams in the game.
Each week in this article, we will have some home run targets for the betting community, whether you are betting that promotion or if you simply want to throw a few fun dollars at a couple of different guys to leave the yard.
We have three home run targets in today’s article for you to consider!
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MLB Player Props Today
Austin Wells to Hit a Home Run
Joey Loperfido to Hit a Home Run
Joc Pederson to Hit a Home Run
Austin Wells to Hit a Home Run (+560, FanDuel)
Wells still doesn’t have a home run in 2024, but that could change on Tuesday. He gets a favorable matchup against Dean Kremer, who ranks in the 5th percentile in barrel% allowed this season. Kremer has also allowed more fly balls than the league-average pitcher, which positions Wells and his upward launch-angle swing to hit the ball in the air if he can make contact.
Across the last 30 days, Wells owns the 2nd-highest fly-ball rate against RHP of any hitter on the Yankees. He doesn’t have the impressive exit velocities of Juan Soto, but he very rarely makes soft contact.
On a night when the temperature is in the mid-80s and the wind is blowing out, Wells has good value at such long odds.
Joey Loperfido to Hit a Home Run (+630, FanDuel)
Prior to being called up on Tuesday, Loperfido was leading all players at Triple-A with 13 home runs in only 122 plate appearances. Among 68 players with at least 100 plate appearances, Loperfido ranked 5th in fly-ball rate and 1st in deserved home run rate, per Baseball Prospectus.
Tonight, Loperfido gets an extremely favorable matchup against Carlos Carrasco, who owns a 5.34 FIP against lefties in 2024. Carrasco has allowed 14 hits to lefties so far, with 6 of them going for extra bases.
Loperfido can bang with the best of them. He has some contact concerns, but those should be mitigated in this matchup, given the fact that Carrasco owns a 19% strikeout rate against lefties this season. There is tremendous value on this line.
Joc Pederson to Hit a Home Run (+440, FanDuel)
Pederson has only 2 home runs this season, but he’s showcased a great approach at the plate and hit plenty of balls hard. Entering play on Tuesday, he owns the 3rd-best barrel/plate appearance ratio of any qualified hitter on the Diamondbacks. Only Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have a higher percentage of hard-hit balls than Pederson.
Tonight, Pederson gets to face Landon Knack, who ranks in the 2nd percentile in average exit velocity, 22nd percentile in barrel rate, and 23rd percentile in ground-ball rate this season. Knack allowed 3 home runs to lefties in only 77 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2023, and he’s already allowed a home run to a lefty in the big leagues this season.
Pederson lifts the ball consistently and has the added benefit of an open roof at Chase Field. He’s worthy of consideration in this spot.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 3-0
Outs Recorded: 0-1
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 7-7
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 3-7-2
Combined Record: 17-17-2 (50.0%)
Image Credit: Getty Images