MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 26th)
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, April 26th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got a whopper of a 13-game MLB DFS slate on tap for Friday, which is one of the biggest slates we’ve had this season. Prize pools on DraftKings are justifiably attractive ahead of such a loaded docket, and it’s helpful that this will not be a Coors Field slate.
Luckily, we’ve also got a deep crop of pitchers at our disposal, which means ownership may not congregate heavily around a single clear-cut SP1. This looks like a glorious GPP slate, so let’s dive right in.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TB/CWS is the only game on the board with potential weather concerns, as Roth has an early YELLOW/ORANGE tag here. It sounds like early rain moves out in time for first pitch, but there’s another batch of lighter rain likely to move in during the game. It doesn’t sound like it’s all that concerning, but catch Crunch Time before lock for Roth’s final thoughts.
- CLE/ATL has winds blowing in at around 10 MPH.
- MIN/LAA has winds blowing out to right-center between 10 and 15 MPH. This is already a favorable park for lefty power, and the wind makes it even more appealing.
- PHI/SD gets a GREEN despite the potential for light rain.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Marlins scratched Jesus Luzardo from his scheduled start tonight at home against the Nationals with an elbow issue. Horrific news considering the rash of early-season elbow injuries that have plagued plenty of other pitchers. Anthony Maldonado will start in his place. Maldonado – who’s $4,000 – will make his MLB debut as Miami’s No. 18 prospect. He’s really just a one-pitch pitcher at this stage of his career, and he’s been serving as a reliever at Triple-A. This is likely a bullpen game for the Marlins.
- Manny Machado should be back in the Padres lineup tonight at home against Philadelphia following his stint on the paternity list. He’ll presumably slide back into the clean-up spot, pushing Jurickson Profar down to 5th. Tyler Wade is expected to hit the bench in favor of Graham Pauley, who’s projected to hit 9th against Aaron Nola. Jackson Merrill is day-to-day with a sore groin after he was scratched yesterday.
- Bryce Harper returned yesterday from his own excursion to the paternity list, and he promptly hit a home run in the Phillies’ win in Cincinnati. He’ll be in there tonight when the Phillies face Machado’s Padres in the #NewFatherBowl.
- The Braves activated Ozzie Albies from the injured list after he missed time with a toe issue. He’ll likely hit 2nd for Atlanta at home against Logan Allen and the Guardians. Orlando Arcia was the primary No. 2 hitter with Albies out of the mix, but he’s now projected to move all the way down to 9th.
- Corey Seager left Wednesday’s game with a bruised shin, but he returned yesterday as the Rangers’ DH in their loss to Seattle. Seager should be in there again tonight when the Rangers host Graham Ashcraft and the Reds, while Josh Smith could draw another start at shortstop if Seager is again serving as the DH.
- J.P. Crawford landed on the IL with an oblique strain. Dylan Moore will likely start most of the Mariners’ games at shortstop for the time being.
- Brandon Drury is dealing with a sore hamstring, which has kept him out of the starting lineup for the last few days. Luis Rengifo has been manning 2B for the Halos with Drury sidelined. Miguel Sano was removed from Wednesday’s game with a sore knee.
- Ketel Marte hit the bench for Wednesday’s game, but it was just a rest day. He’ll likely return to the leadoff spot for Arizona in a #RevengeGame against his former team, the Mariners, in Seattle. Blaze Alexander is projected to hit 2nd against Emerson Hancock, while Corbin Carroll is down in the No. 7 hole. Carroll hit 7th on Wednesday, which was the first time all season he didn’t hit 1st or 2nd in the order. Carroll is reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury, which is likely to blame for his alarming dip in production this season (.246 wOBA, .051 ISO vs. RHP).
- Tyler O’Neill (concussion) and Rafael Devers (knee) both returned to the Red Sox lineup earlier this week, which provides a much-needed boost to an otherwise struggling offense. Both are in Boston’s projected lineup this evening at home against the Cubs.
- Willson Contreras left Tuesday’s game with a sore hand, but he was back in the Cardinals’ lineup as the DH on Wednesday. We have him projected to do the catching for St. Louis when they face Jose Butto and the Mets in Queens.
- Speaking of the Mets, we’re expected to see the season debut of J.D. Martinez tonight. He was signed late in Spring Training, and he’s been spending the past few weeks getting back up to speed. He’s projected to bat 6th as the DH vs. Miles Mikolas.
- Will Smith and Max Muncy got the day off in yesterday’s series finale in DC, but both are in the Dodgers’ projected lineup in Toronto, where they’ll face Chris Bassitt. Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas will hit the bench.
- The A’s put Zack Gelof on the IL with an oblique injury after he was scratched from Wednesday’s lineup. Darell Hernaiz was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster, though Abraham Toro is expected to start again at 2B and bat 6th.
- Jake Fraley has missed 6 straight games for the Reds with an illness, while Jonathan India returned from a 4-game illness-related absence of his own yesterday. India is projected to hit 8th against Nathan Eovaldi, while we don’t have Fraley in the expected lineup.
- Carlos Correa is nearing a return from his IL stint, and there’s a chance he’ll be activated before the Twins’ game in Anaheim tonight.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- As mentioned, there’s a lot to like out there on the pitching side of things. Corbin Burnes ($9,800) looks like the headliner from a projections standpoint despite Aaron Nola ($10,300) and Zac Gallen ($10,000) both carrying heftier salaries. Burnes has easily the best matchup of the three at home against an Oakland team missing Zack Gelof. The A’s projected lineup has struck out more than 27% of the time vs. RHP this season alongside a rather pathetic .277 wOBA. Burnes has been solid enough through his first 5 games as an Oriole, with a 25.4% K rate alongside a 3.13 SIERA.
- Nola is essentially off my radar entirely on the road against the low-strikeout Padres, though I don’t mind Gallen for tournaments in Seattle. The Mariners have some power, but they’re also striking out a ton this season (28.9% vs. RHP). This is also a sizable park upgrade for Gallen, who’s back up to 28.1% strikeouts on the season after a fairly slow start by his standards.
- Zach Eflin ($9,000) is the pitcher we can stream today against the White Sox, even if a trip to Chicago is a park downgrade for him. Chris Sale ($9,300) is off to a terrific start of his own, and the Guardians’ offense hasn’t been quite as immune to strikeouts this season against LHP as they were a season ago. The matchup is better for Eflin, but I’d expect the ownership to reflect as much. I have no qualms with Nathan Eovaldi ($8,600) against a high-strikeout foe in the Reds, either. Going even cheaper, Bailey Ober ($6,800 at LAA) and Luis Gil ($7,600 at MIL) could both gain some traction. Ober simply has no business being $6,800, so I’d expect him to be quite popular. Gil’s elite 34.5% strikeout rate on the season keeps him squarely in play, though his 20.2% walk rate is obviously concerning too.
- The Dodgers only have a 4.66 implied run total, and their matchup against Chris Bassitt is a complicated one. Bassitt has been a respectable enough starter for years, but he has been prone to the occasional meltdown. His splits have been quite pronounced this season too. Bassitt has shut righties down (29% K rate, .253 wOBA allowed), while lefties (12.5% K rate, .470 wOBA allowed) are destroying him. Shohei Ohtani ($6,400) is probably the top overall hitter on the slate, while you can round out the lefty stack with Freddie Freeman ($5,600), Max Muncy ($4,400), James Outman ($3,600), and Gavin Lux ($2,900).
- The Yankees’ matchup in Milwaukee against righty Colin Rea is a similar one. He was decent enough against righties a season ago, but his long-term track record is mediocre, at best. The ballpark in Milwaukee is a particularly good setting for lefty power, and the Yankees are projected to start 5 lefties. Juan Soto ($6,200) always stands out on his own, while Alex Verdugo ($3,400) and Austin Wells ($3,100) have attractive-enough price points. I’m not too scared of Rea to keep Aaron Judge ($5,900) out of stacks either, of course.
- The Twins don’t get to face the White Sox anymore, but their matchup against the Angels isn’t much more daunting. Patrick Sandoval has really been a subpar pitcher since 2021, and his lack of control is consistently his undoing. There’s some strikeout risk in this matchup for Minnesota given their contact struggles, but there’s also the potential for some big innings given Sandoval’s troubles with finding the strike zone. They’re also cheap, so you can pay up for pitching and stack the Twins very easily. Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Ryan Jeffers ($4,000) are the only bats in Minnesota’s projected lineup above $3,000, though there’s pinch-hit risk for some of these bats with Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff among those lurking on the bench.
- Tampa Bay is another stack on my radar, weather permitting in Chicago. Chris Flexen is just as awful as most of the other White Sox starters. His barrel rate allowed (11.9%) is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (12.9%) this season, and limiting power has never been one of his strengths. Isaac Paredes (.306 ISO vs. RHP this season) is a consistent power threat, while Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz are capable bats hitting from the preferred side of the plate against the reverse-splits Flexen. The Rays’ 4.97 implied run total is among the highest on the night as well.
- There’s a lot of value out there, particularly on the hitting side. Addison Barger ($2,000), Nick Gordon ($2,500), Tyler Freeman ($2,900), Curtis Mead ($2,600), Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,000), Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,300), Austin Martin ($2,400), and Joey Gallo ($3,400) are on my radar either as one-offs or in stacks.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
Thanks for reading, and good luck out there tonight!
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