Dylan Bundy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We can pretty easily cover your sub-$9K pitching options (excluding Freddy Peralta) fairy quickly by immediately omitting Austin Gomber & Patrick Corbin at Coors, the still barrel-prone Yusei Kikuchi against the flaming hot and predominantly right-handed Yankees and Vladimir Gutierrez’s -4.8 K-BB%. Everyone else might have some sort of argument. We can start with Dylan Bundy, who current projections (PlateIQ) see as potentially the third best pitcher on the board tonight. Despite sitting below 90 mph on average, Bundy has produced a 19.0 K-BB% with only 32.3% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. However, he has allowed six barrels (9.7%) with just two of them leaving the yard. He’ll return to a more pitcher friendly Baltimore park with his worst estimator being a 3.11 SIERA. Baltimore bats with an 85 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP are pretty pitcher friendly too.

Garrett Whitlock hasn’t seen much dropoff in transitioning from the pen to a starting role, but he also hasn’t been fully stretched out yet (61 pitch high). The Angels have a 114 wRC+, but 24.3 K% vs RHP. Kyle Bradish had a respectable major league debut. While he only struck out two of the 23 Red Sox he faced, he did so with a 9.9 SwStr% and induced swings on one-third of his pitches outside the strike zone. If there is a concern, it’s that he allowed three barrels (15%) on a 92.8 mph EV. Bradish produced a 17.5 K-BB% over 86.2 AAA innings last year and has a 45+ Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. He costs just $5.5K on DK at home against the Twins (106 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP). Kyle Hendricks is less than $7.5K and may have the Wrigley winds at his back against the White Sox (71 wRC+, but 19.4 K% vs RHP). A 9.1 K-BB% with a career low 35.5 GB% and career high 9.2% Barrels/BBE generates estimators no lower than a 4.43 SIERA and as high as a 5.67 xERA for Hendricks. A 57.6 F-Strike%, 24.6 O-Swing% and 39.8 Zone% are all career lows.

Reid Detmers is running a perfectly fine 15.5 K-BB% through four starts with a somewhat average ground ball rate and contact profile, though the 90.6 mph EV is a bit high. Estimators run between a 3.61 SIERA and 4.52 FIP, all more than half a run below his ERA. He has an odd combination of a .239 BABIP, but 63.3 LOB%. He costs $8K on the road in Boston (Red Sox 74 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs LHP) on DK, but much lower on FD. A single walk in Tony Gonsolin’s last start still has his walk rate sitting at 11.3%. The good news is that a 13.3 SwStr% projects something much higher than his current 18.3 K%. He’s also generated a 53.1 GB% with just a single barrel (2.0%). Really, it’s just an issue of getting his walk rate back under control so great things can happen. The Giants have a 112 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP, but depending on ownership projections (currently very low), Gonsolin makes for an interesting GPP upside play on this slate.

Dylan Bundy is loving life in the AL West. He’s struck out 25 of 80 batters with a supporting 14.6 SwStr%, while walking just two. A 2.08 ERA is a little bit lower than estimators still in the mid twos due to a .184 BABIP and 82 LOB%, but only 25.5% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity. His 2.09 xERA is best on the board. Bundy was also a quality contact manager last year, allowing the same 5.9% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed in 2020 so far. Another positive for potential backers is that the Angels are letting Bundy work (at least 24 BF in each start) and the Angels’ pen was worked last night in a high scoring game. The A’s are one of the toughest lineups in baseball to navigate, though they have little left-handed power outside Matt Olson. Bundy has developed a slight split of about 20 points with RHBs below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. The predominance of right-handed batters should play slightly in his favor and there are some strikeouts here. The A’s have a team 24.9 K% vs RHP this year. Bundy is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.7K) and not in any easy spot, but with concerns about Scherzer’s hamstring, he could be the better value tonight.

Dylan Bundy dominated a strong Oakland lineup in his L.A. debut, striking out seven of 24 batters, allowing just three hits without a walk in 6.2 innings. Better than people realize last year (23.1 K%, 4.54 SIERA), his 6.1% Barrels/BBE mark generated a .309 xwOBA that was 24 points better than his actual mark. He could thrive finally free of Baltimore and the AL East. While the Mariners have been surprisingly productive with a team 118 wRC+ this year, they also have a 25.8 K%. With the Angels’ bullpen imploding this week, Bundy may just get the chance to push deep into this game and costs a reasonable $8.2K on FanDuel.

Dylan Bundy has the third lowest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the board tonight (31%). He’s still allowed 28 HRs, 16 of them at home. However, conditions at Camden tonight may be less power friendly according to Kevin’s earlier forecast, which could put him in a less disadvantageous spot. The projected Toronto lineup does not include a single batter below a .180 wRC+ vs RHP this year. That’s certainly still a concern, but it also includes only five batters above a .300 wOBA vs RHP and six above a 22.5 K%. There’s upside in this lineup for Bundy (22.8 K%), who’s .309 xwOBA is 29 points below actual results. Bundy has also had some success against this lineup. In two starts, he’s allowed three runs over 12 innings with 13 strikeouts (46 batters faced). Bundy costs less than $8K on either site.

Dylan Bundy has been a competent contact manager this season. No…really. He’s allowed 28 HRs in 27 starts and still has a 17.9 HR/FB that’s above average in a power friendly park, but his 30.8% 95+ mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE are both better than average and his .313 xwOBA is 27 points better than actual results and in line with a 4.53 SIERA that’s better than his 5.06 ERA. It still may not be enough against a Dodger lineup that terrorizes RHP (115 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 18 HR/FB). It’s not just Cody Bellinger (168 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP) and Joc Pederson (136 wRC+, .318 ISO) either. Matt Beaty (138 wRC+, .241 ISO) moves into the two slot here and looks to be the value play in this lineup. In fact, each of the first five batters in the order are above a .210 ISO vs RHP this year. The Dodgers are the top projected offense on this slate (6.11 runs). Gavin Lux has just a .312 wOBA vs RHP thus far, but a .403 xwOBA and costs within $600 of $3K on either site.

Believe it or not, Dylan Bundy has been one of the top contact managers on the board this year. His 31% 95+ mph EV is second lowest and one of the guys ahead of him (his opponent) has just 18 innings pitched. His ERA and estimators are all below four and while that’s not spectacular, over the last month, they’re all below four and a half. Add in the contact management and he has a .311 xwOBA, 26 points below his actual results. This is the largest gap on the board among any pitcher with more than eight starts. The problem is that he’s a fly ball pitcher (40.5 GB%) who has allowed a 17.1 HR/FB despite just 5.9% Barrels/BBE because…Baltimore. Let’s go back to his last 30 days again though, a span over which he’s faced the Astros, Yankees and Rays (and Kansas City twice). He’s allowed just two HRs and has a 52.8 GB%. And Kevin’s forecast informs us that the wind is blowing in (10 mph) in Baltimore tonight. Bundy is also facing a Texas lineup which projects just one batter above a .220 ISO vs RHP this year and just three above .200. Seven of nine batters in the projected lineup are above a 23 K% vs RHP this season as well. It also helps that the Rangers are the coldest offense in baseball right now with a league low 57 wRC+ over the last week, which includes an 18.1 K-BB% and 10.4 HR/FB. Bundy is within $200 of $7.5K on either site.