MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Tuesday, April 30th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our Fantasy Pick’em tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Tuesday, April 30th
- Logan Webb MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Reynaldo Lopez MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts
- Sixto Sanchez MORE Than 4.0 Strikeouts
- Simeon Woods Richardson MORE Than 15.5 Outs
- Yordan Alvarez MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Juan Soto MORE Than 7.5 Fantasy Points
Logan Webb MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Logan Webb has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last four starts, topping 100 pitches in his last two. He might have the longest leash in baseball. The Red Sox are nothing scary to stop that. His K rate is low, but he’s super economical with his pitches. His 3.6% BB rate makes for a super solid 19.2% K-BB rate. A lot of balls are gonna be put into play against him, but his 62.7% ground ball rate mitigates the potential damage despite the ballpark downgrade from Oracle to Fenway. And though the strikeouts aren’t baked into Webb, the Red Sox projected lineup has a 26.6% K rate against righties, and Webb comes in with a great 29.3% CSW rate. We have Webb projected right at 18.5 outs, so the DEMON boost is gravy — and I think 18.5 is conservative.
Reynaldo Lopez MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts
Reynaldo Lopez and his 10.58 K/9 is almost top 20 among pitchers with 90+ IP. He gets one of the best strikeout matchups in baseball tonight. The Mariners’ projected lineup has a whopping 27.4% K rate against righties, and Lopez isn’t just a glorified opener despite pitching out of the pen in 2023. He’s gone six or more innings in all of his four starts along with seven last week against the Marlins. He has a 28.4% whiff rate and a 14.5% swinging strike rate and doesn’t waste pitches. He won’t go 100 pitches like Webb, but he doesn’t have to in order to pass 6.5 strikeouts. We have him projected for 6.5 on the dot, which seems really conservative considering his volume. I also love his MORE than 16.5 outs and don’t mind his 7.5-strikeout DEMON projection, but the standard MORE than 6.5 is what I’ll be playing the most from Lopez.
Sixto Sanchez MORE Than 4.0 Strikeouts
It’s the Rockies. It’s probably the biggest ballpark downgrade for hitters in baseball — from Coors to loanDepot. Why not Sixto Sanchez for MORE than 4.0 strikeouts? Sanchez hasn’t missed bats in the 47 batters faced this season, but this is a guy who had K-per-inning stuff in the minors, and the Rockies are a Quad-A lineup with a 26.2% K rate against righties. We saw him go 59 rough pitches against the Braves. We have him projected for 67, but his ceiling is probably in the low-70s. This is a risky play for volume, but the Rockies are so bad and the ballpark is so good. We have Sanchez projected for 4.5 strikeouts, so this isn’t crazy. I do think that playing his 5.5 DEMON boost is a little nuts because we can’t reasonably expect five innings.
Simeon Woods Richardson MORE Than 15.5 Outs
The best outs play on the board today is Simeon Woods Richardson and his MORE than 15.5 outs, according to our pick ‘em tool. He only went five innings in his second start, which was against these same putrid White Sox, but he threw 94 pitches. He went six innings through 80 pitches in his first start. Anyone with a 90 count against the White Sox has to be good to play more than five innings, so his PrizePicks projection is a bit soft, as his floor is so high. We have him projected for 15.4, but our tool has a 64.06% win rate on his MORE than 15.5, so we should snatch this up.
Yordan Alvarez MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Yordan Alvarez is one of the greatest hitters in the game facing one of the worst pitchers in the game — Carlos Carrasco — in a good park for hitting. Carrasco is toast. He comes in with a 5.09 SIERA, 6.85 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, a 6.7% K-BB rate, and 1.67 HR/9 allowed on a 9.8% barrel rate. Alvarez has an elite 20.1% barrel rate against righties. We have him projected for 2.7 total bases, and I think the only thing keeping him from 3.0 treatment we give players like Shohei Ohtani in these matchups is that Cleveland has a strong bullpen. But Alvarez can get there in one swing against Carrasco and might face him three times because the rest of his lineup is struggling to do damage.
Juan Soto MORE Than 7.5 Fantasy Points
I’m scared to go with MORE than 2.5 total bases for Juan Soto in any matchup with a wild starting pitcher. Dean Kremer has a 9.7% BB rate against lefties to go with his 9.9% barrel rate allowed, so it’s best to attack Soto’s total fantasy points projection because it’s a great spot for him to get on base and score runs. Then, if runners are on base and Kremer is forced to throw strikes, that’s the gravy. We have Soto’s 11.0 fantasy points projection as 46.7% over his PrizePicks projection — the best fantasy points play on the board.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
The Yankees aren’t on the main slate for DFS, so PrizePicks is a great shot to get a piece of their pie today. The Astros are also in a great spot, but look for juice — 1.5 total bases with DEMON boosts is where we should start outside of Alvarez. There are also the Twins against Mike Soroka, the Rangers against Mackenzie Gore, lefty Royals against Jose Berrios, and I don’t hate Brewers righties against Tyler Alexander and the struggling Rays bullpen. This is a great spot for high volume, but the pitching projections are pretty solid at PrizePicks, so don’t get too aggressive with spreading stuff around. This is a huge slate. Pick your spots.
Image Credit: Getty Images