MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Wednesday (5/1)
What kind of performances can we expect on Wednesday from Graham Ashcraft, Justin Verlander, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for today – Wednesday, May 1, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Wednesday! Today’s MLB slate features 15 games, which includes 8 afternoon contests. The action begins at 1:10 PM ET and will conclude with a matchup between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM ET in the desert.
Since the beginning of last season, we are 123-60 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season.
We have three pitcher prop leans in today’s article for you to consider!
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MLB Player Props Today
Graham Ashcraft Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Justin Verlander Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over/Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
Graham Ashcraft UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130), DraftKings
Ashcraft began 2024 with increased slider usage, which led to an increase in strikeouts through his first few turns in the rotation. However, he’s settled back into heavy cutter usage across his last three outings, which has coincided with a significant decrease in K%.
Ashcraft had only 4 strikeouts against the Angels on April 20th and 3 strikeouts against the Rangers on April 26th. On Wednesday, he will have to contend with the high-contact Padres. Across the last 14 days, San Diego’s offense ranks 4th in Contact%, 6th in O-Contact%, 2nd in Z-Contact%, and 3rd in Swinging Strike%. Their primary vulnerability is that they rank 27th in Called Strike% during that span, but that should be less problematic today with Manny Gonzalez calling balls and strikes, who is a pretty neutral umpire.
In recent games against RHP, San Diego has struck out 3 times against Nick Martinez, 4 times against Taijuan Walker, 10 times against Aaron Nola, 4 times against Dakota Hudson, 4 times against Ryan Feltner, and 4 times against Chris Bassitt. They should be able to stay under 5 strikeouts against Ashcraft this afternoon.
Justin Verlander UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150), DraftKings
Verlander had 7 strikeouts in his most recent outing against the Cubs, but that’s likely to be a rare occurrence for him in 2024.
Since 2014, only 11 pitchers have managed to throw at least 100 innings in an age-41 campaign or older. Perhaps unsurprisingly, those players have not exactly lit the league on fire in those instances. Bartolo Colon, a master of disrupting hitters’ timing, is responsible for three of the four seasons in which a pitcher at least 41 years old finished with a 4.00 FIP or better. The other seven instances on the list have…not gone particularly well. Only Rich Hill managed better than a 20% K% at that age.
In 2023, Verlander still had three average or above-average pitches by Stuff+, but his 21.5% K% was 6.3% lower than it was in 2022. His BB% jumped from 4.4% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2023. Opposing hitters also had a lot more success against him with the bat, posting a .225 BA, which was 41 points better than the season prior. Even more alarming for Verlander is that the .225 BA was likely better than he deserved, as he benefited from a .265 BABIP.
Part of Verlander’s struggles last season were undoubtedly related to his diminishing fastball velocity, which made the offering far easier for batters to do damage against than the season before. Through two starts in 2024, Verlander’s velocity and spin rates are down even more from 2023.
Across the last 14 days, Cleveland’s offense ranks 7th in Contact%, 7th in O-Contact%, 11th in Z-Contact%, 9th in Called Strike%, and 12th in Swinging-Strike%. Prior to striking out 7 times against Hunter Brown on Monday, Cleveland had 2 strikeouts against Bryce Elder, 6 strikeouts against Charlie Morton, 0 strikeouts against Chase Anderson, 3 strikeouts against Cooper Criswell, 4 strikeouts against Tanner Houck, 4 strikeouts against Ross Stripling, and 3 strikeouts against Joe Boyle.
Home plate umpire Angel Hernandez has one of the more erratic strike zones in the MLB, so we will proceed cautiously here. Still, this market number is likely too high for Verlander against a high-contact lineup.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-105), DraftKings
Yamamoto hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in baseball to begin 2024, but he’s recorded 18 outs in back-to-back starts entering play on Wednesday, he gets a favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks, and his team desperately needs him to pitch deep into this ballgame.
After struggling through his first three turns through the rotation, Yamamoto has thrown 68.1% first-pitch strikes across his subsequent three starts, which has helped him work more efficiently. Yamamoto averaged 3.67 pitches per batter faced on April 19th against the Mets and 4.21 pitches per batter faced on April 25th against the Nationals.
The Diamondbacks see a similar number of pitches per at-bat to the Nationals, which means that Yamamoto should have 23-24 batters faced to record 17 outs. Across the last 14 days, Arizona’s offense ranks 29th in OPS, 29th in wRC+, 29th in wOBA, 28th in BA, and 27th in ISO against RHP. Yamamoto should have every opportunity to limit the damage done against him if he can simply throw strikes.
The Dodgers desperately need Yamamoto to work deep into this ballgame due to an extremely taxed arm barn. Daniel Hudson, Joe Kelly, and Michael Grove are all unlikely to be available. Alex Vesia and Nabil Crismatt would be making their third appearance in four days if called upon on Wednesday.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 3-0
Outs Recorded: 0-1
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 7-7
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 4-9-2
Combined Record: 18-19-2 (48.6%)
Image Credit: Getty Images