MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 1st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a full day of baseball to kick off the month of May, with several games having already started in the early afternoon. Both sites are featuring a 7-game main slate that starts at 6:35 PM ET. There are plenty of excellent pitching options to spend up for, which should keep stack ownership on the top offenses relatively in check.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, May 1st
ELITE STACK #1A
Rangers vs. Trevor Williams
The Rangers were a top-5 offense in baseball last season, and they return largely the same group of hitters for the 2024 season. They have gotten off to a slower start, but they have still been above average, with a 106 wRC+.
Trevor Williams will get the start for the Nationals, and he has posted solid results so far in 2024, with a 2.70 ERA. A deeper dive confirms that he has been quite fortunate to achieve those results, and we should expect significant regression from the Nationals righty. His SIERA sits at 4.34, his .270 BABIP is well below his career mark, and he has yet to allow a home run this season after giving up 2.12 HR/9 last season. Williams has posted a well-below-average 18.8% strikeout rate, and his 41.9% hard-hit rate so far would be the highest mark of his career. Not missing bats and allowing loads of hard contact are a recipe for disaster.
Corey Seager has been a big part of the Rangers step back this season, as he has struggled to an 80 wRC+ with just 2 home runs over his first 119 plate appearances. He is still in the prime of his career, and there is no reason to be concerned about one of the best hitters in the game.
Adolis Garcia has easily been the Rangers best hitter this season, posting an elite .286 ISO and 17.5% barrel rate versus RHP.
Marcus Semien continues to be an excellent all-around hitter, with a .178 ISO and .328 wOBA versus RHP this season.
Nathaniel Lowe missed a good chunk of the season’s first month with an oblique strain, but he has settled into his familiar role in the middle of the lineup as the team’s everyday first baseman. We are getting a salary discount on both sites due to that delayed start.
Evan Carter has followed up an eye-opening debut last season with a .293 ISO versus RHP to begin this season. He has cemented himself as one of the game’s best young hitters at just 21 years of age.
Josh Smith has filled in admirably for the injured Josh Jung, with an excellent .361 wOBA versus RHP this season.
Wyatt Langford has not lived up to the immense preseason hype, but his salary has fallen to the value tier, and the potential is still great.
Jonah Heim and Leody Taveras have not yet matched last season’s success, but each brings a little bit of power if you need them to round out the stack.
Chalk is a relative term, and I don’t think any singular offense is going to be overwhelming chalk on this slate. Especially when we consider the context of the slate, with only 7 games and multiple elite pitching options. No stack is projected above 14% ownership in our Top Stacks tool for DraftKings, but the Rangers do own the highest implied run total on the slate, which will play a factor in the field’s decisions.
The Astros and Dodgers are projected to be in that same pOWN% range, although I am skeptical the field will actually (or should) spend on the Dodgers due to the respect for Jordan Montgomery. The Marlins are the chalky cheap stack to help fit elite pitching, and I would prefer to differentiate by fading them over the elite offenses.
ELITE STACK #1B
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
