MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 30th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Whenever value is the chalk on a strong pitching slate, we need to slow down and remember that ownership is a cost. In this space, we’re not just trying to pick players, we’re trying to build lineups with strong projections that correlate well with +EV leverage, not just trying to indiscriminately jam in the most raw points. This is DFS. The game of DFS is more than that. We have to find legs up on the field, and there are plenty of overlooked paths toward doing so on this slate that we should keep in the forefront of our minds.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, April 30th
CHALK STACK
Twins at Mike Soroka
The field is gonna spend up on pitching on both sites. Just book that. So a cheap team facing the pitcher with the worst power prevention on the slate is gonna be the chalk.
The Twins are facing Mike Soroka, who checks all of the boxes as a guy we wanna stack against:
- 5.28 SIERA, worst on the slate
- 2.35 HR/9, worst on the slate
- 6.16 K/9, worst on the slate
- 4.26 BB/9, worst on the slate
The way to depress the Twins power is by striking them out, and Soroka can’t do that, so his 9.9% barrel rate should equal a high frequency of high-quality contact. And the Twins are cheap.
Here are their top barrel rates against righties:
Edouard Julien, 15.1%
Byron Buxton, 13.8%
Trevor Larnach, 12.9%
Max Kepler, 12.6%
Ryan Jeffers, 9.8%
Carlos Correa, 9.5%
There’s your player pool right there, and it even takes care of catcher and the middle infield slots. Willi Castro is a fine play with power and speed, and Carlos Santana is hitting a mess of homers lately. Alex Kirilloff has an 8.8% barrel rate against lefties leading off, so he’s fine. There is a lot of pinch-hit risk with the Twins generally speaking, but that assumes a competitive game. These guys are more likely to stay in for a blowout.
Add to this that the White Sox have the worst bullpen in baseball, and it’s no doubt that they will be at the top of projections in raw points, let alone points per dollar.
With that said, do we wanna play chalk Twins? In this great ballpark for homers without bad weather, probably. We just have to get creative with pitcher and our secondary stacks. I’m probably not playing the Twins with Freddy Peralta, Reynaldo Lopez, Logan Webb, Simeon Woods Richardson, or Mitch Keller — let alone with two of them on DK. If you’re more willing to fade hitting chalk than pitching chalk (even in 2024), you’re gonna wanna go underweight on the Twins and consider x-ing them out for single entry and 3-4-max.
PIVOT STACKS
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