Covering The Bases: Tuesday, April 30th
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday, everyone! I am covering for Cheese today to give him a much needed first weekday off of the season. I imagine he is basking in sunshine and ice cream today. As for the baseball, we have what looks to be an exciting twelve game slate for this evening. The only real weather concern looks to be an early “yellow” rating from Kevin Roth for the CHC/NYM contest. As of the time I am writing this, I am writing under the assumption that all games will be played as scheduled.
Let’s dig in and see what today has in store!
Tuesday Night Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a very deep slate at pitcher tonight, but it’s really all bundled together in the secondary tier. The top tier is pretty clear cut.
TOP TIER ARMS
Freddy Peralta vs. Rays
Reynaldo Lopez vs. Mariners
Luis Castillo vs. Braves
Jose Berrios vs. Royals
I’ve listed four guys here. We’re one guy short of a cheeseburger. I can’t steal the thunder on this joke. You can make a case for any of these four pitchers, so let’s start by going through the 2024 stats to date:
Peralta – 3.18 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 33% K, 8% BB
Lopez – 0.71 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 26% K, 9% BB
Castillo – 4.15 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, 29% K, 8% BB
Berrios – 1.23 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 19% K, 8% BB
I’m going to start the discussion with Peralta, as this is the easiest one to get out of the way. You simply can’t deny his safety and upside combination at this point. His command is much improved now, and that was really the only thing holding him back from ace status in previous years. He has an ERA and xFIP around 3.00 this season to go along with a sparkling 33.3% strikeout rate. The Rays are not an explosive offense at the moment, as they got swept by the woeful White Sox over the weekend and scored just 1 run in a 1-0 win last night. Peralta is a clear SP1 in all formats. I don’t see any way around that.
The other three pitchers are an exercise in what a small sample size can do for you. Luis Castillo has the best xFIP of anyone listed in this tier, yet he has an ERA that is almost three runs worse than Jose Berrios and more than three runs worse than Reynaldo Lopez. That is the epitome of “small sample size alert.” Castillo will be fine. The problem? He’s facing the Braves tonight. I can see rolling him out as a GPP option, though, and I’ll keep a close eye on projected ownership here.
I’m simply not playing an expensive Reynaldo Lopez or Jose Berrios tonight. There’s no reason to overpay here — just get Peralta. Lopez is not going to pitch to a .220 opposing BABIP all season. Berrios is not going to pitch to a .232 opposing BABIP all season, and he doesn’t even have any upside despite his strong surface level ERA because of his complete lack of strikeout upside. These two are simply off my board tonight, though I suppose you could argue for a sprinkle of Lopez if you are building 50+ lineups, as he has at least shown some strikeout stuff.
For me, it’s Peralta >>>> Castillo >>> Lopez > Berrios if I had to rank this group in order, and I feel pretty comfortable with that.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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