2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-04-29 17:51:17

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

After a departure from the typical PGA TOUR format at the Zurich Classic, players will descend upon McKinney, Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch hosts the tournament for the fourth consecutive year. The course has not offered much of a challenge through the first three years of hosting the event. The field should be able to go low at this tournament. Let’s preview betting odds, the field, and the course before highlighting the form of a few golfers ahead of this week’s event.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – April 29th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson:

• 2023 – Jason Day (-23)
• 2022 – K.H. Lee (-26)
• 2021 – K.H. Lee (-25)
• 2019 – Sung Kang (-23)
• 2018 – Aaron Wise (-23)
• 2017 – Billy Horschel (-12)
• 2016 – Sergio Garcia (-15)
• 2015 – Steven Bowditch (-18)

The 156-player field is noticeably weaker this week. With an onslaught of designated events and a major in the coming weeks, we should not be surprised to see the elite golfers taking a week off. Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns would typically appear at an event held in Texas, but both continue to wait for the arrival of their first-born child.

Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and Tom Kim make up the component of the field with Dallas ties. Jason Day returns to defend his championship, while Min Woo Lee and Benny An add a bit more star power to the tournament.

K.H. Lee is in this year’s field. Lee won the event the first two years that TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Seamus Power is the only player in the field to finish inside of the top 20 in all three years since the change of venue.

2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Date: May 2 – 5
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,468
• Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Craig Ranch will not challenge players. In each of the three years the course hosted the Byron Nelson, the winning score was sub-20 below par. We should expect a very, very low cut line and a very, very high volume of birdies.

Rowlett Creek meanders about the course, spanning 14 different holes in total. That said, rough practically doesn’t exist at this course. The fairways are incredibly generous. We won’t worry much about fairways and can include driving distance as a key stat this week.

There are six par 4s between 450-500 yards. Two of those holes are the “toughest” holes on the golf course. K.H. Lee excels in this range and was a winner twice already. We will include this bucket in our statistical model this week.

The par 5s are the best scoring opportunities for players on the course. Each hole has a birdie rate north of 47%. That said, three of the par 4s have immense birdie rates. There are birdies everywhere on this course. We will include SG: Par 5 and BOB% in our model this week.

SG: T2G leaders fared very well at TPC Craig Ranch last season. Around-the-green game doesn’t seem to be crucial at this event, as any players that are missing greens are likely not scoring enough to contend.

SG: Approach will be paramount just ahead of this tournament descending into a putting contest. We will emphasize SG: OTT, driving distance, BOB%, SG: Putting, and proximity greater than 200 yards. Length will be vital given that the course features a very standard, wide-open layout. Let’s take a look at a few golfers that could fit TPC Craig Ranch.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Tom Hoge +2000

Hoge continues to be a model darling, as his form hasn’t stalled. He enters the tournament with back-to-back T20 finishes and fits this layout better than most. A second-shot golf course that requires a volume of opportunities at birdie is exactly what Hoge provides each week.

Hoge ranks 1st in SG: Approach, 3rd in BOB%, and, to my surprise, 18th in putting. He checks all of the boxes required to make a run at this course. The former Horned Frog will make a return home of sorts and could be hoisting a trophy. He is an outright play at this price and a sensible one-and-done play given the field strength.

Stephan Jaeger +3000

Jaeger doesn’t check all of our boxes this week. Yet, our recent winner on the PGA TOUR provides a weekend sweat nearly every tournament. Jaeger ranks in the top third of our field in BOB%, SG: Par 5, and P4: 450-500. He also ranks 26th in driving distance. Jaeger is going to compete this week.

At 30-1, we get a solid price tag given the field strength. When I played “guess the odds” by myself (don’t judge), I would have thought he would be +2500 or shorter. Perhaps he will head in that direction. If you are interested, we should buy as soon as possible.

Taylor Pendrith +9000

Pendrith finally put together a solid tournament in Puntacana, finishing 11th in an alternate event birdie fest. While we don’t have ShotLink data for that event, Pendrith gained nearly 8 strokes on the field and finally got off the schneid.

Pendrith was an extremely chalky pick earlier this season before his run of bad finishes commenced. The Canadian, though, features a skill set fit for this event. He ranks 4th in BOB%, 12th in putting, and 21st in SG: Par 5. At 90-1, we can continue to get exposure to Pendrith at a very, very cheap price before he goes on a run of good form.

I think he merits consideration as an outright bet. He walks the line as a position bet this week.

Peter Kuest +9000

I can already imagine Kuest is going to do the rounds in the content world this week, but I can’t leave him out. Kuest leads the field in driving distance and is coming off of back-to-back T10 finishes. He finished inside of the top 20 last year at TPC Craig Ranch in what felt like a bit of a coming-out party for the young golfer.

At 90-1, he is a must add early in the week before he gets steamed to a shorter number. He very likely carries too much risk for a one-and-done selection.

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