2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-05-01 19:51:55

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

After a fun week at the Zurich Classic, the PGA TOUR heads back to Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch will host the event for the fourth year and will very likely give up plenty of scoring. The winners over the first three years at this course have reached the mid-20s, and there is no reason to think we won’t witness another birdie fest just outside of Dallas, Texas. Give our betting preview a read for pertinent field and course information. Let’s build our betting card for this week’s event.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 1st – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

We saw quite a shakeup in betting odds since Monday afternoon. Will Zalatoris withdrew, and several golfers in the 40-1 range fell back in betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Date: May 2 – 5
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,468
• Greens: Bentgrass

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• BOB%
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Putting
• P4: 450-500
• Driving Distance
• Proximity 200+

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Tom Hoge +3000 (BetRivers)

Nothing changed for me since writing up the betting preview for this week’s event. The case for Hoge only improves with Will Zalatoris withdrawing. Hoge ranks 1st in my statistical model this week mainly because of his approach numbers and BOB%.

Hoge ranks 3rd in the key Par 4 bucket, providing plenty of comfort knowing he has success in this range. He ranks 5th in total strokes gained coming into this event. The bottom line is the former Horned Frog continues to play very well. I don’t want to miss the week when he puts everything together or spikes a great putting week. Not a horrible putter (18th in SG: P), if Hoge can get hot with the flatstick for a couple of rounds, then we should see him working his way to the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Hoge will open this week’s card and is likely my one-and-done selection for the week.

Stephan Jaeger +3000 (bet365)

Unsurprisingly, Jaeger’s number has bottomed on many sports betting sites ahead of Thursday. What isn’t to like? Jaeger scores, can hit the ball very far, and finds a way to make cuts every single week.

He leaves a lot to be desired on the greens, but the now PGA TOUR winner plays Par 5s exceptionally well and can score with the best of them. Without much contention from the course, I expect Jaeger to be able to attack this course as he continues to improve as the years pass. He is likely going to be a very popular bet, DFS play, and one-and-done selection for those who have not used him up to this point.

We give Jaeger Bombs the same treatment as Tom Hoge and throw a unit on him for this week.

K.H. Lee +5000 (DraftKings)

I didn’t say much about Lee in my betting preview aside from the fact that he won this event the first two years it was played at TPC Craig Ranch. His form has been spotty of late, with a missed cut at the Valero and THE PLAYERS Championship. He did land a T10 finish at the Valspar and obviously has a great track record at this week’s venue. While he didn’t win last year, he did make the cut and finished 50th despite losing 7 strokes on the greens.

We can’t expect Lee to putt that poorly at these friendly confines. Before losing strokes at the Houston Open and the Valspar, Lee gained with his putter in six straight events. This feels like a week where we all look back and bemoan fading a two-time winner at +5000. Well, I won’t.

Lee makes for a sneaky one-and-done pick because you probably won’t look to use him again this year. I am not sure I will get there, but I am certainly including him as an outright.

Peter Kuest +8000 (BetMGM)

Let’s go on an….adventure, with Peter. Kuest. Alright, I’ll stop.

Kuest was this event’s darling last year and looks to be a popular long-shot choice for the event again. Leading the field in driving distance, the length of the course won’t be an issue for the young golfer. Length is not all he offers though, as Kuest is ranked 4th in putting and 31st in BOB% in this field. He has two consecutive T10 finishes in his only starts this year in 2024 and should come in riding the momentum.

He makes for a fine top finisher proposition at these odds and will likely be a very popular DFS target. For me, we will start with the outright selection and make a decision on other exposure later.

Quick Hitters

Taylor Pendrith +8000 – Pendrith is finally finding some form and rates out extremely well in putting, birdies, and SG: Approach. He is miles long off of the tee and could pay off an outright at a high price.

Andrew Novak +10000 – Novak is becoming a weekly staple on my betting card. Ranked high in SG: Approach and Prox. 200-plus, Novak should create plenty of opportunities. Will he cash in? At 100-1, I am willing to find out.

2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Tom Hoge

Byron Nelson Units: 3.7

2024 Net Units: 114.05

The Majors Futures

We went into last week with Cameron Young and Ludvig Aberg at 100 units each off of promotional bets. This week, I was able to bet Sahith Theegala at 40-1 for the PGA Championship for 50 units. I will very likely look to complete Theegala to 100 units before the PGA Championship kicks off.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images