MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, May 3rd)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Split the picks again last week. Kutter Crawford’s defense let him down and an unearned run helped push that first 5 innings total over. Patrick Sandoval finished comfortably under his strikeout line against Minnesota. Handedness is so important when it comes to strikeout props. The Twins have been struggling mightily to make contact against RHP, but they’re actually pretty average vs. LHP. Something to keep in mind.
Got an interesting player prop this week, as it’s an under but in a good way. Usually we’re fading positive stats, but in this case, it would benefit this pitcher if he hits the under here.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 3-2
- Prop Picks: 4-1
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)
This pitching matchup doesn’t scream run prevention, but Martin Perez and Cal Quantrill have been solid enough. This is more about these woeful offenses.
Pittsburgh is dead last in OPS and wRC+ vs. RHP this season. The White Sox narrowly edged them in wOBA, so they’re only 29th there. Over the past two weeks, it’s been even worse. The Pirates have a comical 47 wRC+ in that span. On the season, tonight’s projected lineup has a .093 ISO and a 0.275 wOBA against RHP.
Colorado facing LHP hasn’t been much better. Only the Marlins and White Sox have a worse wRC+ against LHP than the Rockies. That stat accounts for ballpark, so it factors in the boost Colorado gets from Coors Field. They’re still pretty bad in OPS and wOBA, but wRC+ gives the clearest picture. This is a road game for the Rockies, so they won’t get the benefit of playing at Coors. They’ll have to settle for the scenic view at PNC Park.
Perez has actually been solid this season. His 2.86 ERA won’t last, but he’s done a nice job taking advantage of good matchups. Perez has allowed 3 ERs or less in all but one start. Quantrill is in a similar boat, having tossed three straight quality starts until Houston got to him for 6 ERs last time out. His ERA sits at 5.34, but his xERA is actually 4.12. Quantrill won’t get many strikeouts, but he’s done a solid job limiting hard contact.
Seems like a more-than-fair price to fade these scuffling offenses.
Jordan Hicks Under 2.5 Walks (-135 on BetMGM)
This line is for the flame-throwing, erratic reliever version of Hicks. He hasn’t been that guy as a starter. Hicks’ transition to the rotation with San Francisco has gone swimmingly, in large part due to improved control.
Hicks has his BB% down to a career-low 7.7%. It’s rare to see a 2.5 BBs line for a starter with that walk rate. Hicks is at a 12.2% BB% for his career, but he’s made several changes as a starter to eradicate his walk issues. The most obvious change has been velocity, as Hicks isn’t throwing 102 MPH anymore. The fastball and sinker are down to 97 MPH and 96 MPH, respectively. Still quite hard but about 3 MPH slower than he sat as a reliever.
Hicks is also in the zone more often. His strike rate is 62.8%, which is his best mark for a full season. He’s at 60.5% for his career. Hicks has his first-pitch strike rate up to 66.9%, which is a career high by a mile. He’s only been above 60% one other time (60.9% in 2019). Hicks had a 4-walk game in a tough matchup against Arizona, but aside from that start, he’s handed out just 6 BBs in 29 IP.
Philadelphia is a middling matchup, ranking 15th in BB% vs. RHP. It’s really just Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper with huge walk rates, then a bunch of below-average BB% guys. If Hicks can navigate that pair, he’ll be in a good spot.
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